May 17, 2018

Strong trade growth continues but momentum may soften in Q2, trade indicator suggests

The strong rate of trade expansion is likely to continue, while slowing slightly in the second quarter of 2018, according to the WTO’s latest World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI) released on 17 May. The WTOI’s current value of 101.8 remains above the baseline value of 100 for the index but below the previous value of 102.3, which suggests continued solid trade growth in the second quarter of 2018 but probably at a somewhat slower pace than in the first quarter. The recent dip in the WTOI reflects declines in component indices for export orders in particular but also for air freight, which may be linked to rising economic uncertainty due to increased trade tensions.

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